
Cofco's global head of softseeds said China will import 4 to 4.4 million tonnes of Canadian canola in 2017-18, with exports rising only slightly to 4.5 to 5 million tonnes by 2020. He said Chinese protein demand favours soybeans, whose crush margins have been superior to canola's for an extended period.
Limited Chinese appetite for canola, combined with expectations of record Canadian plantings, points to ample supply and weak canola export demand. This is bearish for canola meal pricing relative to soybean meal.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 342 past bullish trade events, SBM moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.