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USDA's November WASDE lifted the U.S. corn yield estimate to a record 175.4 bu/acre, well above the 172.4 analysts had forecast. Production was raised to 14.578 billion bushels, and corn ending stocks rose 147 million bushels from October.
The yield surprise and higher ending stocks point to a looser corn balance sheet, which pressures futures prices.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.