
Steiner Consulting expects US beef production to keep growing over the next two years on an expanding beef cow herd, good pastures and ample feed. It sees US cattle slaughter rising 3.1% in 2018 and 2% in 2019, while Australian slaughter is forecast to recover from 20-year lows after drought liquidation.
A growing US beef supply and rising slaughter point to softer US cattle prices if exports do not absorb the extra beef. Australian export demand may also shift as US supply expands into Japan and Korea.
After 144 past bearish report events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 126 past bearish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.