
Global unplanned oil supply outages fell in 2017, averaging 2.8 million b/d from January to October versus 3.8 million b/d in 2016. The decline was driven mainly by lower disruptions in Libya and Nigeria.
Outages are forecast to keep falling in 2018 and 2019, which offsets the impact of OPEC's cuts.
Falling outages add barrels back to the market and reduce the tightening effect of OPEC's cuts, which weighs on crude prices. Geopolitical risk in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela could still reverse this trend.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.