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CoBank's Knowledge Exchange report says U.S. grain elevators may earn strong margins in the 2018 crop year due to wide futures carry, weak harvest basis and low transport rates. It also flags storage shortfalls and possible Brazilian production issues tied to a developing La Niña.
Wide carry signals ample storage demand and large stocks that weigh on nearby prices, while La Niña risk to Brazil could support deferred corn and soybean prices.
world-grain.comEric SchroederNov 30, 2017After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
