
USDA's November Cattle on Feed report showed placements up 14% from a year earlier, driven largely by lightweight cattle, with Texas placements up 23%. Poor Southern Plains pasture conditions and favorable cost of gain pushed feedlots to load up on calves.
Heavier-than-expected placements draw feed demand forward, but fewer cattle available in early 2018 could reduce feed use later, weighing on corn and meal demand.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 144 past bearish report events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 126 past bearish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.