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Texas A&M economist Mark Welch told the Texas Wheat Symposium that world wheat acres are expected to fall and demand is rising, so he is fairly bullish on 2018 wheat prices if yields are normal. He noted that record global yields in 2017 had pressured prices and that the northern Plains drought lifted prices from $3.89 in 2016 to about $4.60.
A forecast of falling global carryover supports firmer wheat prices into 2018, which would raise feed wheat costs relative to corn if the outlook plays out.
texaswheat.orgadminstudionumaDec 20, 2017After 10 past bullish macro events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.1%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 57 past bullish macro events, WHEAT moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.7%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
