
Ag Scientia analysis says NSW grain deliveries to GrainCorp reached only 1.6 million tonnes by the first week of December, well below last year's 5.5 million. Industry sources think ABARES's 4.8 million tonne NSW wheat forecast is optimistic.
If NSW output falls short of ABARES's estimate, Australian export supplies would be tighter than officially forecast, supporting wheat and barley prices.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.