
Global nitrogen prices rose from about August 2017 after years of stagnation, according to Fertecon analyst Luke Hutson. China's urea exports fell in 2017 because of high production costs, with Chinese fertilizer exports expected near 4.9 million tonnes.
US urea exports rose sharply as new domestic plants came online.
Lower Chinese export flows support global urea prices, while rising US exports and new capacity could limit further gains.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.