Chinese urea prices rose 4.6% in December after India's National Fertilizers issued a tender for 1.5 million tonnes, following a 2.5 million tonne tender from Indian Potash. Speculation about easing Chinese export quotas also contributed.
The rally halted a multi-month price decline.
Large Indian tenders absorb global supply and tighten the urea trade, supporting nitrogen prices heading into the Northern Hemisphere spring season and raising costs for farmers.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.