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ING analyst Viraj Patel says Fed policy will be a negligible driver of the USD in 2018, as the January FOMC minutes show a muddle-through path. Markets already price about 60bp of tightening for 2018.
Patel says only a major regime shift, such as hawkish or dovish Fed governor appointments, would change that view.
Limited Fed-driven dollar upside suggests dollar-denominated feed commodity prices may not get strong support from policy. Emerging market currencies may benefit, which could affect import demand for feed.
octaafrica.netJan 4, 2018After 359 past neutral macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
