Cold weather has frozen parts of the Illinois, Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, and inland waterways remain constricted. USDA data show grain barge tonnage in the first two weeks of January was 496,000 tons, 63% below the same period last year.
Export-season grain movement through the Gulf depends on barge capacity, so the shortfall delays shipments and widens basis, pressuring cash grain prices while supporting barge freight.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.