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A Mexican rail carrier, Ferromex, issued embargoes in August after a freight train accident in Irapuato, disrupting grain shipments into western and central Mexico. Mexico remained the leading destination for US grain exports in 2025, at 24 percent of the total.
The USDA report also cites EIA forecasts of lower Brent crude prices and diesel prices in the fourth quarter.
Rail delays into Mexico can slow US grain sales to a key buyer and build up backlogs, while lower crude and diesel prices reduce transport and feed production costs.
doi.orgAug 21, 2025After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 230 past neutral logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 36 past logistics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -4.6% to +3.2%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 18 past bearish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.5% to +3.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
