US rice production rose to about 2.9 million acres in 2023 after two years of decline. California's medium-grain acreage recovered above 500,000 acres after the 2022 drought, and El Niño drought has hit off-season production in Thailand, Burma and Indonesia.
Heavier US medium-grain supply could cap upside in rough rice prices, while drought in key Asian exporters supports global prices. The net effect is mixed for buyers.
After 31 past neutral weather events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.