US rice production rose to about 2.9 million acres in 2023 after two years of decline. The November rough rice futures contract traded near $14.66/cwt in March 2024, and an El Nino-linked drought is hitting off-season rice production in Thailand, Burma and Indonesia.
Drought-hit Asian off-season output could reduce exportable rice supplies, supporting global prices, while a larger US medium-grain crop caps upside for US rough rice.
After 31 past neutral weather events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.