Malaysia suspended its crude palm oil export tax for three months, from January 8 to April 7, 2018, to reduce high stocks. Analysts were broadly positive but warned that Indonesia could respond with incentives that undercut prices and spark a trade war.
Removing the export duty lowers Malaysian export costs and should support palm oil export flows and prices in the near term, though a possible Indonesian response could cap the gains.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.