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The yuan hit two-week highs onshore and three-week highs offshore ahead of the US election and China's legislative meetings. Implied volatility for offshore yuan reached levels not seen since 2015.
Currency volatility ahead of possible Trump tariffs creates uncertainty for Chinese import pricing of US farm commodities.
After 169 past neutral macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.2%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.