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Ice accumulation has cut grain barge tonnage on the Mississippi, Illinois and Ohio rivers by more than 60% in the first two weeks of January. An Illinois River elevator accepting only rail-loaded deliveries cut its basis to minus 20 cents from minus 7 cents, leaving farmers about 13 cents per bushel lower.
Transport constraints during the Sept-Feb export window weaken local soybean cash bids and can divert demand to Brazil and Argentina. Basis is the channel through which the disruption reaches farm-level prices.
brownfieldagnews.comMark DorenkampJan 22, 2018After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
