
A CropLife outlook says the global nitrogen market was in transition in 2017, with new capacity in China, Asia, the Middle East and North America keeping prices generally lower than the year before. Urea and UAN imports to North America fell 31% and 29% year-over-year from July through November 2017.
Urea prices at New Orleans swung widely during the year, from $160 to $250 per ton.
Ample global nitrogen supply has lowered fertilizer costs for North American farmers, which helps feed margins. Continued volatility in urea makes input budgeting harder for feed grain producers.
After 26 past neutral report events, Urea moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.