
India's government estimates record 2017-18 food grain output of 277.5 million tonnes against a target of 274.5 mt, with rice at 96.5 mt and pulses at a record 24 mt. Pulse oversupply of about 30 mt is expected against annual consumption of 23 mt.
The release came about two weeks late.
Record Indian output and pulse surplus point to ample domestic supplies and weaker import demand, which is mildly bearish for rice and pulse trade prices.
After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.