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The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center released outlooks for March, spring and summer, noting La Nina conditions are expected to decay quickly into ENSO-neutral by spring. Illinois and most of the US are favored to see above-normal summer temperatures, with equal chances for precipitation in Illinois.
A transition away from La Nina and warmer summer forecasts add weather risk to the 2018 US corn and soybean crops, which can support prices if dryness develops.
stateclimatologist.web.illinois.eduJim AngelFeb 15, 2018After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
