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The Illinois State Climatologist reports that an extremely dry August and early fall intensified drought across central and southern Illinois, with flash drought in the south. River levels on the Kaskaskia, Sangamon and Mackinaw dropped near or below low stage, and fire and blowing dust risks increased ahead of harvest.
Soil moisture is well below normal at monitoring stations.
Drought stress during the late growing season threatens yields for corn and soybeans in Illinois, and low river levels can disrupt barge movements. Both factors support firmer grain and meal prices.
stateclimatologist.isws.illinois.eduTrent FordSep 11, 2025After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
