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Dryness and heat persist in Argentina and Uruguay dairy basins, reducing pasture quality. Brazilian milk supply is seasonally lower, supporting farmgate prices and strong butterfat demand, while SMP export prices fell and WMP export prices rose.
Tight South American butterfat and WMP supply supports dairy prices in the region, though the impact on feed grain demand is limited.
After 32 past bullish weather events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.4%), and +3.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.