The White House held multiple meetings with USDA and biodiesel companies on the RFS after anti-RFS interests requested changes. Senator Ted Cruz proposed a hard cap on RIN prices, which the American Soybean Association and biodiesel groups oppose.
A RIN price cap would reduce biodiesel margins and blending demand for soybean oil, which is bearish for soyoil and supports a weaker soybean crush outlook.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.