
Bulgarian weather has improved for most wheat regions after a delayed spring, though showers persist in the southwest. Planted wheat area reached 1,134,007 hectares by 12 April, up 3.4% year on year.
Bulgarian wheat exports for the 2017/18 season are expected to exceed the previous season's.
Larger planted area and higher expected exports add to Black Sea and EU wheat supply, which is mildly bearish for wheat prices. Hailstorms remain a risk before harvest.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.