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ICE canola futures rose over the past week as a China-U.S. trade dispute unfolded, with proposed Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans weighing on Chicago futures. The Vancouver cash basis widened sharply as China appeared to buy ahead.
Expected Chinese diversion from U.S. soybeans to Canadian canola supports canola prices and meal values, while Chicago soybean weakness pressures U.S. soy complex prices.
grainews.caGFM Network NewsApr 5, 2018Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
