The Renewable Fuels Association says EPA's recent actions lowered the 2016 conventional RFS obligation by more than 1 billion gallons. It estimates about 2.4 billion gallons of ethanol demand and 860 million bushels of corn demand were lost over two compliance years.
The agency is expected to take similar steps for 2017 and 2018.
An estimated 860 million bushels of lost corn demand is a substantial bearish factor for feed grain and ethanol-linked corn prices. Expected further waivers extend the pressure into future crop years.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.