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US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer dismissed the collapse of trade talks with Canada, while Canada supplies about 96% of its canola oil exports to the US. The US imported 2.5 million tonnes in 2025, worth about C$4.2 billion.
Trump's 25% tariffs on Canadian canola products from February 2025 and the disqualification of Canadian canola from a biofuel tax credit cut US imports sharply.
Renewed trade tension raises the risk of tariffs or Canadian export taxes on canola oil, which would tighten US supply and lift prices, though substitutes are limited.
thedeepdive.caJP AlegreAug 25, 2026After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
