◂ Event Timeline

May 23, 2018POLICYUS

Farm bill negotiations may feature payment limits struggle

The House and Senate Agriculture committees are likely to clash over commodity payment limits after their bills leave committee. The House bill loosens eligibility restrictions and removes the cap on marketing loan gains, while Senate Chairman Pat Roberts is working with Sen.

Chuck Grassley on tighter limits.

WHY IT MATTERS

A stalemate would leave existing payment rules in place, so farm subsidy flows to large operations would stay largely unchanged and feed grain acreage decisions would not shift much.

AFFECTSCorn Soybeans Wheat (SRW)

SOURCE
agri-pulse.comPhilip BrasherMay 23, 2018

Price reaction & history

Cornno directional readSO FAR1d +0.6%5d -0.5%20d -8.5%

After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

Jun 16, 2023Payment limits to be reconsidered in Farm Bill | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+2.2%
Jun 28, 2017Farm bill future entangled in budget, tax negotiations | 2017-06-27 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+5.6%
Oct 25, 2017Opinion: The Zero-Sum 2018 Farm Bill | 2017-10-25 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-1.4%
Oct 3, 2018Farm bill expiration impact varies | 2018-10-02 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-1.7%
Nov 30, 2016Farm bill wheels starting to turn | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.0%

Soybeansno directional readSO FAR1d +0.8%5d -0.7%20d -13.7%

After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.

Jun 16, 2023Payment limits to be reconsidered in Farm Bill | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.6%
Jun 28, 2017Farm bill future entangled in budget, tax negotiations | 2017-06-27 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+7.1%
Oct 25, 2017Opinion: The Zero-Sum 2018 Farm Bill | 2017-10-25 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.2%
Oct 3, 2018Farm bill expiration impact varies | 2018-10-02 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.3%
Nov 30, 2016Farm bill wheels starting to turn | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.5%

Wheat (SRW)no directional readSO FAR1d +0.3%5d -0.0%20d -2.3%

After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.

Jun 16, 2023Payment limits to be reconsidered in Farm Bill | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+3.5%
Jun 28, 2017Farm bill future entangled in budget, tax negotiations | 2017-06-27 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+3.2%
Oct 3, 2018Farm bill expiration impact varies | 2018-10-02 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-2.7%
Oct 25, 2017Opinion: The Zero-Sum 2018 Farm Bill | 2017-10-25 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-4.5%
Nov 30, 2016Farm bill wheels starting to turn | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+3.7%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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