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The May USDA report projects 2018/19 world wheat production falling below consumption for the first time in years, and coarse grain ending stocks dropping 38 million tonnes to 185 million. Coarse grain production is forecast at 1,341 Mt, with consumption at 1,378 Mt.
Projected stock declines in wheat and coarse grains point to tighter supplies and firmer feed grain prices in the coming season.
graincentral.comHenry WellsMay 11, 2018After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The USDA projection that coarse grain ending stocks would fall 38 Mt as consumption exceeds production tightens the outlook for feed grains, which supports oats as a substitute and adds bullish sentiment.
