A CCAFS report reviews ENSO preparedness in five East Asian countries, citing 2015-16 El Niño losses of about 450,000 hectares of crops in Vietnam and 556,721 hectares in the Philippines. The World Bank is running an advisory program in Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, the Philippines and Vietnam.
Past El Niño losses in Southeast Asian rice and other crops show the supply risk if a new event develops, but the report is a policy review with no immediate price driver.
After 31 past neutral weather events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.