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The Climate Prediction Center's summer outlook shows a slightly increased chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures in Kansas for June through August, with equal chances for above- or below-normal precipitation. ENSO is expected to remain neutral, with only a slight chance of El Niño developing in the fall.
Warm conditions with uncertain rainfall in the Plains add some risk to the HRW wheat and sorghum crops, though the neutral outlook offers limited support for prices on its own.
eupdate.agronomy.ksu.eduMay 18, 2018After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
