PhosAgro has halted all sales and shipments to Ukraine after Ukraine's 14 May decree imposed sanctions on Apatit and PhosAgro-Ukraine. The company says it will redirect volumes to other markets, including Russia.
Ukraine is a net importer of phosphate fertilizers, so the cutoff tightens its supply and may shift Russian phosphate flows elsewhere, with limited global price effect.
After 126 past geopolitics events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.