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The EIA forecasts Henry Hub spot prices averaging $2.98 per MMBtu in 2019, 4 cents below the 2018 average. The forecast cites rising natural gas production outweighing relatively low storage levels, and it is lower than the agency's prior 4Q2018 projection.
Expected production growth outpacing demand points to softer US natural gas prices in 2019, even with low storage.
After 62 past bearish report events, NATGAS moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -7.6% to +4.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.