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The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 0%-0.25%, in line with expectations, and signaled no hikes until 2023 or later. The EIA weekly report showed unexpected builds across crude and refined products, and refinery utilization rose to 76%, below seasonal norms.
Crude fell to about $62.22 as the market reacted to the data and the policy stance.
A surprise inventory build signals weaker near-term fuel demand and tends to pressure crude and diesel, which lowers energy costs for feed and freight. Low rates that weaken the dollar would normally support commodity prices, so the net effect depends on which factor dominates.
mansfield.energyAlan ApthorpMar 18, 2021After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 86 past bearish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
