
Mexican officials told Reuters that Mexico could target about $4 billion in annual US corn and soybean imports if President Trump escalates the trade dispute with new tariffs. Mexico is studying ways to reduce the impact of such a move, and it imported some Brazilian corn and soybeans in the first quarter.
A possible Mexican tariff on US corn and soybeans would threaten a major export outlet, adding bearish pressure on US corn and soy values and supporting Brazilian export competitiveness.
After 683 past bearish trade events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.