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DTN's summer 2018 outlook calls for generally favorable conditions and at least trend-line yields for major crops, with northern, central and eastern areas most favorable and southern areas facing dryness. Analog years 1951, 1963, 2006 and 2009 are cited, two of which produced record US corn crops.
A favorable yield outlook for US corn and soybeans reduces the risk premium in new-crop prices. Dryness in the south is a localized risk that could limit the downside.
dtnpf.comBryce AndersonJun 1, 2018After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
