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Drought has expanded, with about 26 percent of the US beef cow herd in drought areas by late June, concentrated in the southwestern US. Beef cow slaughter rose more than 12 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2018, and cattle prices are volatile amid trade disputes.
Drought-driven herd liquidation increases near-term cattle supply and feed-grain demand is uncertain, adding price volatility for feeders.
ag.ndsu.eduJul 11, 2018After 18 past bearish weather events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.9%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 29 past bearish weather events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +2.6%), and +2.4% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
