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A Washington Institute brief analyzes the July 25 Houthi attack on the Saudi-flagged VLCC Arsan in the Red Sea. The tanker had been carrying about two million barrels of oil to Egypt.
The authors say Saudi Arabia has suspended tanker movements through Bab al-Mandab and that disruptions will continue until Houthi forces leave Hodeida province.
Ongoing suspension of tanker traffic through Bab al-Mandab keeps a risk premium in crude prices. Persistent disruption would sustain higher energy and freight costs.
washingtoninstitute.orgJul 27, 2018After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
