Russian wheat exports rose sharply in the early 2018/19 season as FOB Novorossiysk prices for 12.5 percent protein wheat climbed to $205-208/t. Exports through July 18 were reported at roughly double the prior season, with wheat exports up 2.7 times.
Farmers held back sales while expecting higher prices after continued rain delayed harvest and raised quality concerns.
Strong Russian wheat export pace and farmer holding behavior tighten near-term export availability and support world wheat prices, which feeds into higher wheat-based feed costs.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.