Mexico imposed higher tariffs on American fresh cheese and grated, shredded or powdered cheeses in retaliation for US steel tariffs. Mexico is the top customer for US cheese, and the Virginia Farm Bureau says the move stalled an expected price recovery.
The article also cites stalled NAFTA negotiations as a further drag on dairy prices.
Losing access to Mexico's large cheese market reduces US demand for milk and pushes more surplus into lower-value products, which weighs on Class III milk prices.
After 49 past bearish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -4.7% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.