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Chicago SRW wheat rose 5% and Kansas City HRW rose 6% in the week to August 8 after a rumor that Ukraine might restrict milling wheat exports briefly triggered a limit-up move. Analysts expect USDA to cut world wheat production estimates because of smaller crops in the EU and Russia.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts 2018/19 Russian wheat output at 64.4 MMT, down 25%.
A tighter global wheat crop and lower Russian exportable supply reduce the wheat available for feed use and support higher wheat prices. Wheat-based feed ingredients will likely track these moves.
uswheat.orgAug 8, 2018After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
