
Northern Plains farmers and elevators are considering temporary storage as Chinese retaliatory tariffs block soybean sales into the Pacific Northwest. There are no soybean bids for local elevators, while corn bids into the Pacific Northwest have increased, suggesting corn may substitute for soybeans.
Loss of China as a soybean outlet weighs on soybean basis and prices, while corn exports to the Pacific Northwest gain demand, supporting corn.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.