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An economics blog post argues that rising U.S. real interest rates tend to push real commodity prices lower. It outlines the cost-of-carry, extraction, financial-allocation and currency channels behind that relationship.
If U.S. real rates keep rising, the stronger dollar and higher carrying costs could weigh on commodity prices, including grains and oilseeds.
cepr.orgCEPRSep 1, 2018After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
