
Dutch fertilizer prices are rising, with KAS up €35 per tonne since July and expected to climb €3-5 monthly, despite a subdued local market after a dry season. Potash prices are also firming, though supply from Russia is set to increase in 2019.
European producers have requested anti-dumping measures on urea imports from Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, and the US.
Rising KAS and potash costs raise input expenses for European grain and feed producers, while possible anti-dumping duties on urea could tighten nitrogen supply and lift prices further.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.