Analyzing a 1-cent MFP corn payment

After 439 past neutral policy events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.

• Mar 31, 2023Ag groups lay out farm bill concerns - High Plains Journal-1.2%
• Jun 16, 2019Senate Agriculture Committee Trade Hearing- USMCA, China, and MFP Payments-0.8%
• Jul 26, 2019Map: A look at where the MFP payments are going | 2019-07-25 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-2.2%
• Jul 16, 2022High Cost of Animal Feeds Pushes Grain Imports by 72 percent-4.0%
• Jan 18, 2018RINs part of a political battle of renewable fuels – Ohio Ag Net | Ohio's Country Journal+0.7%

After 554 past neutral policy events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Mar 31, 2023Ag groups lay out farm bill concerns - High Plains Journal+1.2%
• Jun 16, 2019Senate Agriculture Committee Trade Hearing- USMCA, China, and MFP Payments+0.7%
• Aug 6, 2021Funding for river system improvements is moving forward – Ohio Ag Net | Ohio's Country Journal-0.1%
• Sep 26, 2019Assessing Market Facilitation Payments in Hindsight and Implications for Future Policy - ProAg+2.8%
• Oct 19, 2020Trump's payments to farmers hit all-time high ahead of election+3.2%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.