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The IRI and Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicate a 50-60%+ chance of El Niño developing in the 2018-19 summer season. The South African Weather Service forecasts dryness from October to December, overlapping with summer crop planting, and the country's rainfall has trended lower since 2010.
Dry weather during South Africa's summer planting could reduce maize and other summer crop output, which would tighten southern African supplies and support regional feed grain prices.
wandilesihlobo.comSep 22, 2018After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
