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CoBank reported that African swine fever has led China to cull nearly 200,000 pigs, and Chinese pork prices have risen 25 percent since July due to control measures. Chinese consumers are not substituting poultry for pork.
A 62 percent Chinese tariff on US pork and higher soymeal prices from the trade war add pressure on Chinese protein producers.
Tight Chinese pork supply may lead to higher pork imports, which could benefit US and other exporters, while higher soymeal costs squeeze Chinese livestock margins and feed demand.
meatpoultry.comErica ShafferOct 24, 2018After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
