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Canadian farmers could sell 500,000 to 1 million tonnes more wheat to China in 2018/19 than usual, depending on harvest quality. Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans have increased interest in Canadian canola meal.
Despite these gains, ICE canola and Minneapolis spring wheat futures have not risen much.
Export gains to China are real but are not lifting Canadian futures, because soy price declines are dragging canola lower. Feed buyers should expect Canadian meal and wheat prices to stay pressured despite the new demand.
reuters.comRod NickelOct 26, 2018Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
