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Farm Credit Canada economists say tight 2025-26 crop margins are likely to tighten further because of trade instability. They estimate Western canola and wheat returns at $50 to $75 per acre, with canola losing $25 per acre if prices fall 15%.
Canola futures fell more than 10% after China announced its tariffs before rebounding.
Thin margins and price downside risk could shift canola and wheat acreage in Western Canada, changing 2025 supply. Canola futures have already shown sharp sensitivity to tariff headlines.
agcanada.comAGCanadaApr 11, 2025Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
